Online Investing vs Timeshare Investing

My wife and I just got back from Kauai. We checked out of the hotel at noon on Saturday and did not fly out until 10:30 PM. To get about $400 off our helicopter tours and other activities we agreed to spend part of that downtime Saturday afternoon going to a timeshare sales presentation.

Timeshares are a bit of a weird investment, especially when compared to the internet. Online if I invest $50,000 I expect to turn that into a $50,000 a year revenue stream. And you can do that project after project as long as you push them…just keep building stronger cashflows and reinvest into further growth.

Offline investments are generally not like that though…yielding much slower returns. In spite of that (and the recent real estate downturn), our timeshare salesman guaranteed us that they increase their rates 7% a quarter (which compounds to 31% annually), and that the value of the real estate keeps going up. Since we were there on the last day of the month the rates were increasing the next day by 5%, and then 7% again one month later.

When they sell you points you have to pay maintenance on them. A waterfront room costs many more points than a garden view room. Both rooms are the exact same, but even the cheapest room had a $700 a year maintenance cost for fractional 1 week ownership. Weather or not you stay in the room their maintenance and electricity charges come out to $36,500 a year or more per condo!

Given the maintenance costs, the only aspect of the timeshare idea that sounds reasonable is inclusion in a service like Interval International, where you can buy access to vacation in other unused timeshares for about 20% of retail value – and the key to turning that into a value play is to take about 6 vacations a year, which is risky strategy if you are still in your 20s.

A friend of my wife teased my wife into asking for the lowest price possible. They offered to eat the $500 closing cost, give the first year maintenance fee for free, and take $6,000 off the $20,000 opening price. But the offer was take it or leave it, and since I was more interested in the sales pitch than the product we decided to pass. 😉

While on vacation I also read Clay Shirky’s Here Comes Everybody, a book about how social networks and social interactions will change businesses and institutional structures. Online there is so much competition for attention and so many people talking that the take it or leave it offers rarely work. Even when it does work it often gets criticised, which makes it hard to keep building a brand from.

To sell information online you really need to add interactivity to keep it fresh. You also need to build a strong personal brand to draw in way more customers than you could ever want to handle, and then use price to filter based on how much you want to work and what you intend to offer. The easiest way to build such a brand is to give away a lot of great content and hope that it builds a strong traffic stream and a network of people who follow, trust, and talk about you.

As far as timeshares go, it looks like bidshares.com is a free auction service which allows you to bid on low priced timeshares that are part of Interval International, and other services like SellMyTimeshareNOW.com also allow you to hunt by program.

Changes in Living Costs Over the Past 25 Years

I recently watched the following video by Elizabeth Warren:

She stated that as the United States has went from a one worker family to a two worker family that economic stability has drastically decreased. Now families need 2 paychecks (104 weeks a year vs 52 weeks a year in the past) plus they do not have a stand-in worker if either gets injured…both need to work all the time.

Economic research has shown that in spite of the increased capital gained through improvements in productivity and 2 workers in the workforce that many families have less disposible income. This is largely driven from the following inflation adjusted increases over the past ~ 25 years

  • 25% increase in taxes
  • 76% increase in mortgage costs
  • 74% increase in health insurance
  • the new cost of childcare (nobody at home to take care of the kid when both parents work outside the home)

Government Regulations Create Many Business Models

I just came across an ad for FlyClear.com, which is a private for profit company designed to help its customers get through the airport quickly. They are a voluntary, self-credentialing, private sector service. And if an airplane blows up because of their service they are probably insured and/or the owners can quickly cash out before the lawsuits strike. I find it fascinating that all of society has (apparently) arbitrary bottlenecks placed on it and then some for profit company can claim to create an alternate route for those who seek it.

Being Cheap Gets Expensive on Your Soul

This was from a few months back. Cleaning out the inbox, and coming across this gem makes me sooooo happy about changing my business model.

WHY YOU’VE GOTTEN SO BIG THAT ITS CHANGED YOU FOR SOME AND AGAINST SOME. YOU’VE GROWN AND GOTTEN PICKY, BUT TAKE IT OUT ON US, YOUR CUSTOMERS THAT KEEP YOU GOING. YOU NEVER ANSWER OUR QUESTIONS, YOUR SO BIG IN THE HEAD, WE’RE IGNORED. BUT I LIKE WHAT YOUR DOING FOR EVERYONE, EVEN THOUGH. I COME ON YOUR SITE, BECAUSE I LIKE TO BROWSE, TO ENJOY YOUR SITES. WHEN I STARTED IN 07, I GOT SITES FROM ALL OVER, NOW THEIR FROM DOWN THE STREET. BEFORE I FOUND 5 AUCTION WEB SITES, NOW ONLY 2= YOUR GETTING LAZY. SUCH IS LIFE, HAVE A NICE DAY.

Laziness was perhaps a bit inaccurate there. Overworked? Perhaps.

The bigger your brand gets, the worse your customer service gets unless you put barriers (typically financial) between you and the people giving you feedback (even requiring free registration kills much of the noise though). 100,000 people will tell you what they think you should be doing (I literally have probably exchanged emails with that many people), but only 20,000 of them would actually be willing to pay you to listen to their advice (for a nominal one time fee), and only a few thousand are willing if you charge recurring for that opportunity.

As competition and market saturation heat up, weak and cheap relationships get killed by lowering perceived relevancy and value (free is much easier than cheap), while close and high value relationships that are nurtured flourish.

Tag-line Fun

So I got a bit of flack when I changed my tag-line from “a new chapter every day…” to “Learn. Rank. Dominate.”

I actually changed it before I changed my business model and people thought I was just being arrogant. I think one problem with the perception of the old brand was that it made it sound like I am always learning and you have to keep learning SEO every day. It perhaps was off putting for some people. Plus the price point and lack of interaction (unless I wanted to answer 4+ hours of email every day) limited how much I could teach people.

What are the odds that one linearized book was perfect for everyone? Not likely. Many people who bought that book probably never read the whole thing. So I broke it into chunks, added multimedia, and put it all online. Suddenly an endless sea of good information turns from overwhelming to a great asset. Increase the price-point to go with the shift and you attract the right kinds of customers who want to dominate. Plus with the increased price-point you have enough time to help each of your customers out one on one.

And if you ever worked in the corporate world, and saw department heads going back and forth, it is no secret that most people at the top of large companies want to crush the competition and dominate their marketplace.

And most people who work independently also want to dominate their market. It wears you down doing everything by yourself, so you really have to want it really bad to stick with it…you have to want to dominate the marketplace.

It starts with learning then ranking, and when you have done a lot of both of those that sets you up for market domination.